Kai Yang Flow — Rastreador de Baleias Crypto em Tempo Real

PROFESSIONAL RISK MANAGEMENT

How Much to Risk per Trade
Without Blowing Your Account?

The Kelly Criterion is the formula that investment funds use to size positions. Find the exact lot size for your setup — free.

✅ 100% Free • 📊 Spot and Futures Mode • 🧮 Instant result

The Mistake That Blows Up 90% of Traders

Two traders with the same setup, same win rate, same strategy. One profits consistently. The other blows up in 2 weeks. The difference? Position size.

Lot too large:

3 consecutive losses wipe 30%+ of the account. Panic. Revenge trading. Account gone.

Lot calculated by Kelly:

3 consecutive losses remove 5-10% of the account. Normal. Recoverable. Account survives.

The Kelly Criterion mathematically calculates the exact point between growing as fast as possible and never going broke.

How the Kelly Criterion Works

1

Enter Your Setup

Win rate, stop loss, take profit and capital. The calculator accepts any combination and shows whether it makes sense to trade or not.

2

See the Ideal Lot

The system calculates Full, Half and Quarter Kelly. Recommends Quarter (75% of growth with 25% volatility) and caps at 5% for safety.

3

Choose Spot or Futures

In Spot, shows how much to buy. In Futures, automatically calculates the required leverage based on your stop loss.

Spot Mode vs Futures Mode

SPOT Mode

Kelly shows the direct purchase size.

Example: "Buy $40 of SOL on Spot"

If it rises 2%: gain $0.80. If it falls 2%: lose $0.80.

No leverage. No liquidation risk. Smaller gains, but safer.

FUTURES Mode

Kelly shows the maximum risk and calculates leverage.

Example: "Margin of $40, leverage 50x, position of $2,000"

If it rises 2%: gain $40. If it falls 2%: lose $40 (entire margin).

Leverage calculated automatically. Larger gains, but stop = margin liquidation.

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Stop Guessing Your Position Size.
Calculate with Mathematical Precision.

The difference between a trader who survives and one who blows up is not the setup — it's position size.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Kelly Criterion?

It is a mathematical formula created by John Kelly in 1956 that calculates the ideal percentage of capital to risk on each trade. It maximizes long-term growth without risk of ruin.

Why not use Full Kelly?

Full Kelly maximizes theoretical growth but generates drawdowns of 30-50% of the account. In practice, no trader or fund uses Full Kelly. Quarter Kelly (25%) offers 75% of the growth with only 25% of the volatility.

What is the difference between Spot and Futures in the calculator?

In Spot, Kelly shows how much to buy directly (no leverage). In Futures, it shows the margin and automatically calculates the required leverage so the stop loss represents exactly the amount risked.

Why does the calculator cap at 5%?

Values above 5% per trade generate drawdowns that most traders cannot handle psychologically. Even if the theoretical Kelly suggests more, we cap at 5% to maintain realistic and sustainable results.

Do I need to validate my strategy before using Kelly?

Yes. Kelly only works if the win rate you enter is reliable. Use the Strategy Validator first to confirm your sample is statistically significant, then apply Kelly.